Following is the IPL team tally as of today after Bangalore taking over Delhi in today's IPL Match:
| Team | Matches | W | L | Tied | N/R | Pts | NRR |
| Delhi | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.25 |
| Chennai | 13 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0.93 |
| Hyderabad | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.26 |
| Bangalore | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | -0.25 |
| Punjab | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | -0.42 |
| Rajasthan | 13 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | -0.36 |
| Mumbai | 13 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0.40 |
| Kolkata | 13 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -0.89 |
Now, the purpose is to find out competent IPL semi finalists based on the data provided and probability. ;)
Assumptions:
1.) No Tie break between Chennai V/s Punjab, Hyderabad V/s Bangalore.
2.) Current Run rate is taken into consideration.
Delhi is already qualified for the Semi Finals.
Rajasthan wins
Chennai wins & Hyderabad wins - Chennai 17, Hyderabad 16, Rajasthan 15
(out Punjab 14, Bangalore 14)
Chennai wins & Hyderabad loses - Chennai 17, Bangalore 16, Rajasthan 15
(out Hyderabad 14, Punjab 14)
Chennai loses & Hyderabad wins - Hyderabad 16, Punjab 16, Chennai 15
(out Rajasthan 15, Bangalore 14)
Chennai loses & Hyderabad loses - Bangalore 16, Punjab 16, Chennai 15
(out Rajasthan 15, Hyderabad 14)
Rajasthan loses/tie-break
Chennai wins & Hyderabad wins - Chennai 17, Hyderabad 16, Bangalore 14
(out Punjab 14, Rajasthan 13/14)
Chennai wins & Hyderabad loses - Chennai 17, Bangalore 16, Hyderabad 14
(out Punjab 14, Rajasthan 13/14)
Chennai loses & Hyderabad wins - Hyderabad 16, Punjab 16, Chennai 15
(out Bangalore 14, Rajasthan 13/14)
Chennai loses & Hyderabad loses - Bangalore 16, Punjab 16, Chennai 15
(out Hyderabad 14, Rajasthan 13/14)
In the above projection, Rajasthan's loss/tie break with Kolkata are identical. So, the probability to qualify for the semi-final is:
Chennai: 8/8 (100%)
Hyderabad: 5/8 (62.5%)
Bangalore: 5/8 (62.5%)
Punjab: 4/8 (50%)
Rajasthan: 2/8 (25%)
Based on the above probability, Semi-final would be:
Delhi V/s Bangalore (1 V/s 4)
Chennai V/s Hyderabad (2 V/s 3)
Hence, one thing is sure that Chennai and Delhi are surely going to be in Semi-Finals. Rest is purely mathematics. (Courtesy: an IPL Fan)
